Hormuz Traffic Collapses as US Warns of Longer Blockade

Transits Near a Standstill

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a trickle following two more vessel attacks in the waterway and a US statement that it could sustain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely. According to a report by MarineLink, citing Reuters, only two vessels transited the strait on Friday — a grain carrier heading into Iranian waters and an empty dry bulk ship moving the opposite direction — alongside an empty liquefied petroleum gas tanker entering the Gulf. No crude oil shipments were recorded that day.

Thursday saw nine vessels pass through, an improvement on Wednesday’s five but still well below the August average of 12, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler. Before the conflict launched by the US and Israel against Iran in February, more than 130 vessels crossed the strait daily, though some ships may currently be transiting with transponders switched off and therefore going undetected.

Renewed Attacks and Stalled Talks

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company reported that two of its vessels were attacked while transiting the strait on Thursday evening. The UAE government attributed the attacks to Iran, which offered no immediate response. A senior Iranian source said Wednesday that talks aimed at building on a June ceasefire agreement had made no progress, and Iran has resumed targeting vessels it accuses of crossing the strait without authorization.

Torbjorn Solvedt, principal Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said Iran’s capacity to restrict shipping through the strait remains its principal source of leverage in negotiations, alongside threats to regional energy infrastructure.

Washington Signals Further Pressure

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the Navy has the capability to sustain its blockade of Iran indefinitely by rotating vessels through the region. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said additional financial measures against Iran would be announced in the coming week, describing them as unprecedented in scope.

An Iranian parliamentary committee has approved a plan for the strait that would bar transit of US, Israeli, and other “hostile” nations’ assets and equipment, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency. Washington previously said it would lift its blockade once Iran and Oman reach agreement on restoring commercial shipping.

Market and Regional Context

Brent and WTI crude futures both edged higher, trading near $87 and $81 a barrel respectively. Reports that Yemen’s Houthi movement targeted a Saudi Aramco refinery with drones on Thursday have added to concerns of a wider regional conflict, with economists warning of a sharp global growth slowdown should the war continue.

The prolonged disruption has also sharpened regional interest in export routes that bypass the strait entirely. Iraq’s cabinet, for instance, has separately approved a memorandum of understanding with Syria for oil pipelines linking Iraqi production sites to Mediterranean export terminals, part of a broader diversification push that predates the current blockade but has gained added urgency because of it.