EU ETS hits 100%: full carbon pricing lands on container trades

The EU Emissions Trading System reached full strength on 1 January 2026. Shipping companies must now surrender EU Allowances (EUAs) for 100% of verified emissions on covered voyages — up from a 40% share when the scheme began in 2024 and 70% in 2025. The system applies to cargo and passenger ships of 5,000 GT and above, and from 2026 it prices not only carbon dioxide but also methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O).

Coverage is route-based. Emissions on voyages between two EU/EEA ports, and emissions at berth in EU/EEA ports, are counted at 100%; a voyage between an EU/EEA port and a non-EU port is counted at 50%. For container lines — whose scheduled networks touch European hubs such as Rotterdam, Hamburg and Antwerp on almost every rotation — this turns the allowance bill into a recurring, per-voyage cost rather than an occasional one. Carriers already recover the charge through dedicated ETS surcharges, and the step to full coverage raises that bill materially versus 2025.

The inclusion of methane matters for the LNG-fuelled boxships ordered in large numbers over the past decade. Unburned methane slip now carries a direct allowance cost, narrowing part of the CO₂ advantage LNG offered on paper. The commercial question shifts from “do we pay the ETS?” to “how accurately do we measure, allocate and hedge it?” — because EUA prices move, and every tonne of mis-estimated emissions is either an over-charge to the customer or an under-recovery for the operator.

Apeks view — Carbon pricing has quietly become a data problem. The line that measures fuel and emissions per voyage most accurately can price its ETS surcharge with confidence; the one that estimates is exposed on both sides of the invoice. As with every compliance regime tightening around shipping, the winners are the operators who already treat operational evidence as an asset, not paperwork.