Hormuz Transits Drop as Dark Shipping, AIS Spoofing Rise

Transits Slow Sharply Along Omani Corridor

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not stopped following renewed attacks this week, but it has slowed considerably, particularly along the Southern Corridor that runs near the Omani coast. According to a report by The Maritime Executive, U.S. Central Command maintains the Strait remains open despite Iran’s claims of control over it.

Pinning down exact transit numbers has become harder, largely because more ships are switching off their AIS transponders. Maritime data firm AXSMarine reports that, apart from tankers, AIS-off transits have nearly doubled in recent days, with some gas carriers believed to still be using the southern route while going dark. AI intelligence company Windward estimates that roughly 40 percent of all Hormuz traffic is now dark — the highest level in six days.

Spoofing Returns After Quiet Spell

AXSMarine also reports that AIS spoofing resumed on July 9, after having largely eased over the prior two weeks. Actual transit counts have dropped as well: Kpler recorded 22 crossings on July 9, down from 30 the day before, with only one vessel believed to have used the Omani route. AXSMarine separately put the figure at 20 vessels across both directions, noting that nearly all observed transits shifted toward the Iranian-controlled route. Windward reported just six vessels crossed overnight between July 9 and 10, with only one outbound — compared to 15 to 21 per day before the latest attacks.

CENTCOM Pushes Back, Trapped Fleet Shrinks

CENTCOM issued a statement asserting that “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz,” adding that U.S. forces have helped move more than 800 commercial vessels and 380 million barrels of crude through the Strait since early May, though it did not address the current situation directly.

The number of vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf has fallen by more than 370, to under 700, according to AXSMarine, which estimates about a third of the fleet trapped at the conflict’s start is no longer detected in the zone — though many tankers and gas carriers remain.

Industry Warnings and Political Signals

Trade group INTERTANKO told members the latest exchanges were more intense and widespread than previous ceasefire breakdowns, while noting the IMO’s proposed seafarer evacuation plan remains on hold even as U.S.-Iran technical talks have resumed. Donald Trump posted that the ceasefire is over and the U.S. would respond to further Iranian aggression, fueling speculation about a possible renewed blockade of Iranian ports. TankerTrackers.com reported Iran shipped out at least 10 million barrels of crude and fuel oil overnight, on top of an estimated 60 million barrels moved since the blockade was suspended in mid-June.